Limits on cash withdrawal from banks and enforcement of ‘benami’ property law will have a direct impact on the real estate sector and a cascading effect on other sectors, such as housing finance, cement, building products and consumer goods. Lets take a look at these sectors:
According to some estimates, 6-10% of the black money generated in India was held in cash, while most of the remaining was invested in gold and real estate, a key reason for the multifold rise in property prices since 2003-04. With no incremental black money now flowing into the property market, the demand has fallen dramatically. Industry checks suggest that builders have already started giving 20-30% discount to potential buyers who are willing to pay the entire amount in white. Further, experts fear that crackdown on ‘benami’ properties, which are believed to be mainly owned by politicians and government officials whose income cannot justify purchase, can trigger higher supply in the sector.
Many housing finance companies (HFCs),which have given loan against property (LAP), are not only likely to take a hit in terms of loan growth but also their asset quality is likely to be at risk as value of the property would drop. HFCs such as Cholamandalam Finance, Indiabulls Housing Finance, PNB Housing Finance, Bajaj Finance and Dewan Housing Finance have high exposure to LAP of 28%, 24%, 18%, 16% and 16%, respectively. According to some analysts, a few NBFCs might also have camouflaged loans to builders as several small ticket-sized affordable housing loans. Loans to builders are perceived to be riskier than retail.
Close to two-thirds of this industry’s demand comes from the housing segment. After the government announced the demonetisation drive on November 8, cement volumes have dropped 30-50% and cement prices have corrected by 1015%. Cement companies will also see the impact of rising fuel prices. Fuel and power, which contribute 20-25% of cement makers’ total cost, have risen by 25% in the past three months. Shares of cement companies which have seen a sharp re-rating over the past year in anticipation of an uptick in earnings in the second half of FY17 might see further correction.
BUILDING PRODUCTS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
Building products and materials such as paints, tiles, pipes, sanitary ware and plywood have seen a sharp drop in demand since November 8. ET found that several powder sand mines in Rajasthan, which provide raw material to tiles makers, have shut down.
Due to lower internet and banking penetration in rural areas, cash transactions have been high. However, curbs on cash withdrawal will dampen consumer sentiment and spending, as people will prefer keeping cash for basic necessities. Besides, 2008-2013 was mainly driven by multifold rise in rural land prices, leaving more money in the hands of farmers who sold their land. Fall in land prices and limited withdrawal would be negative for two-wheeler, tractor, consumer staples and other consumer durable companies.
Credits ET Realty